Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65f1…3dd6 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$350 (+8%) realized +$350 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$200
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$312
other 24% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -37.9% -43.8% 40% 40% -31.8%
all 34 -4.2% -13.3% 65% 56% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 56% -1.4%
10% -21.6% 41% -10.8%
15% -29.2% 32% -19.4%
20% -36.1% 18% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$60 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$350
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage249d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $300 +$38 +13%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $50 +$49 +98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $20 −$10 -50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $667 +$210 +32%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $50 −$41 -81%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $88 +$61 +69%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $460 +$151 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $130 +$43 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $100 +$106 +106%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $50 +$24 +47%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $140 +$50 +36%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 28 $10 −$2 -18%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $44 +$21 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $100 +$43 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $242 +$30 +12%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $20 +$13 +64%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $124 +$11 +9%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $287 +$18 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $214 +$27 +12%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 23 $220 −$110 -50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 22 $120 +$68 +57%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $105 +$11 +10%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Oct 19 $71 −$9 -13%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $50 −$20 -40%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $73 +$33 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $10 +$17 +172%
LoL: PSG Talon vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 16 $80 +$11 +14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 16 $88 −$88 -100%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 16 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Oct 15 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $20 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 8h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $338 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $99 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $50 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $100 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $200 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 10¢ $10 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $14 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $10 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 9¢ $20 89d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 99¢ $516 222d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 222d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 65¢ $120 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 11¢ $9 223d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $149 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 58¢ $50 223d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 59¢ $88 223d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 229d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 63¢ $361 229d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 229d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $611 229d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 75¢ $360 230d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $133 231d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 41¢ $88 231d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL Gen.G 49¢ $34 231d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 45¢ $60 231d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 17¢ $6 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.98 · official $199.98 (match) · 99 history records