Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
65 0x65f5…5e42 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+9%) realized +$127 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$210
other 23% −$110
crypto 5% −$26
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 38% +20.2%
≤30d 17 -23.3% -30.6% 35% 35% +13.4%
≤90d 17 -23.3% -30.6% 35% 35% +13.4%
all 17 -23.3% -30.6% 35% 35% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 35% +13.4%
10% -37.3% 29% +2.6%
15% -43.3% 24% -7.3%
20% -48.9% 12% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$11 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions12
Markets (closed)17 / 29
History coverage28d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No $45 $15 −$30 (-67%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 78¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 43¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Under 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Spain 34¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 32¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $46 −$4 -9%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $91 +$43 +48%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $81 +$28 +35%
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 +$115 +226%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $46 +$40 +87%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $61 +$28 +46%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 25 $15 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $30 13m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 14m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $20 16m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 17m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $20 22m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $14 25m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 97¢ $134 25m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No $10 53m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No $10 53m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No $10 53m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 54m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $60 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 54¢ $34 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $27 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $20 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 63¢ $40 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 60¢ $75 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $36 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 44¢ $15 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $30 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $10 2h
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5) BUY Sonego $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.96 · official $200.97 (match) · 59 history records