trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $19 | $24 | +$4 (+21%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $20 | $21 | +$1 (+5%) |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $12 | −$4 (-25%) |
| Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $12 | −$4 (-25%) |
| Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $11 | −$4 (-25%) |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $7 | −$1 (-17%) |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels | Jun 11 | $23 | −$18 | -80% |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Jun 11 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies | Jun 11 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics | Jun 10 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | Jun 10 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 | Jun 10 | $1 | +$1 | +132% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 | Jun 10 | $15 | +$14 | +91% |
| Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) | Jun 10 | $15 | +$14 | +95% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies | Jun 10 | $21 | +$28 | +137% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | Jun 10 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 | Jun 10 | $4 | +$3 | +81% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | -24.5% | -31.7% | 36% | 36% | -35.8% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -24.5% | -31.7% | 36% | 36% | -35.8% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -24.5% | -31.7% | 36% | 36% | -35.8% |
| all | 14 | -24.5% | -31.7% | 36% | 36% | -35.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -31.7% | 36% | -35.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -38.3% | 36% | -41.9% |
| 15% | -44.2% | 36% | -47.5% |
| 20% | -49.7% | 36% | -52.7% |