Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

65 0x65f6…c4a5 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-52.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-47.7%	-52.7%	33%	33%	-11.7%
≤30d	3	-47.7%	-52.7%	33%	33%	-11.7%
≤90d	3	-47.7%	-52.7%	33%	33%	-11.7%
all	3	-47.7%	-52.7%	33%	33%	-11.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.7%	33%	-11.7%
10%	-57.2%	33%	-20.2%
15%	-61.3%	33%	-27.9%
20%	-65.1%	33%	-34.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -48% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$53

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Michael Olise: 1+ assists	Yes	45¢	48¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots	Jun 22	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals	Jun 21	$21	−$21	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND	BUY	15¢	$15	1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	1h
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	15h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	15h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.20 · official $64.28 · 8 history records