Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65f9…4425 weather 739 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,072 (+0%) realized +$1,076 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate85%677W / 119L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day169.7pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% +$2,977
other 24% −$1,327
sports 18% +$129
world 1% −$1,058
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 384 -19.9% -27.5% 74% 5% -11.7%
≤30d 796 -6.9% -15.8% 85% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 796 -6.9% -15.8% 85% 6% -9.6%
all 796 -6.9% -15.8% 85% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 6% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -37.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$95 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$455
Realized+$1,076
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses677 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions5
Markets (closed)796 / 739
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$362
Trades / day169.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 95¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $190 $192 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? No 48¢ 60¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 11? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 17? Jun 18 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 26? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 14? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 17? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? Jun 18 $235 −$235 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 15? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 16? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on May 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 3? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 27? Jun 18 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37-38°F on February 2 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Mar Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on May 13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 28? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February Jun 18 $0 −$514 -369633%
Honor of Kings: Godji Check vs Buriram United Esports (BO5) - RoV Pro Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Marc Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 29? Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 17? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 26? Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on Mar Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 15? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 14? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on February 8? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 9? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on May 5? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 28? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 20? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 99¢ $270 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 100¢ $250 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 99¢ $1,929 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 99¢ $411 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 95¢ $238 7h
Spread: Colombia (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 99¢ $50 8h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? SELL No 100¢ $2,640 8h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY No 98¢ $2,601 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $809 9h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL No 49¢ $1,803 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1,499 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $505 11h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 91¢ $3,397 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $149 11h
Spread: England (-4.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $130 11h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 50¢ $1,534 12h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $2,337 12h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $118 12h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $4 12h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $499 12h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL No 86¢ $1,943 13h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 74¢ $1,479 13h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? SELL No 89¢ $90 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $40 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $14 13h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $63 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.11 · official $462.21 · 3500 history records