Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65f9…6adb other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized −$9 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$1
sports 5% −$33
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 35% -16.0%
≤30d 26 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 35% -16.0%
≤90d 26 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 35% -16.0%
all 26 -23.1% -30.4% 38% 35% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 35% -16.0%
10% -37.1% 23% -24.1%
15% -43.1% 19% -31.4%
20% -48.7% 19% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage6d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $80 $93 +$13 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+39%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $204 −$26 -13%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $31 −$21 -67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $230 +$6 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $90 +$15 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$20 +65%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $121 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $155 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 98¢ $150 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? SELL Yes 84¢ $152 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $157 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.51 · official $287.51 (match) · 76 history records