Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
65 0x65fa…389f sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+12%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$95
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$36
other 33% +$1
politics 2% −$11
crypto 1% −$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.5% +14.5% 56% 56% +27.3%
≤30d 24 -29.9% -36.6% 29% 29% -11.4%
≤90d 29 -16.5% -24.4% 38% 38% -5.7%
all 36 -9.8% -18.4% 42% 42% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 42% -5.3%
10% -26.2% 42% -14.3%
15% -33.4% 36% -22.6%
20% -39.9% 33% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage380d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 +$53 +172%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$32 +106%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$19 +188%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$53 +105%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $10 +$7 +73%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 May 18 $10 +$8 +77%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 07 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Will SK Brann win on 2025-12-11? Dec 13 $8 +$3 +33%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-01? Dec 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Dec 01 $5 +$13 +257%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 02 $4 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $31 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $83 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $31 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 3d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 4d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Spa BUY 11¢ $5 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 24d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor BUY Yes 65¢ $9 30d
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $10 30d
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 35d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $15 36d
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 37d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes $5 37d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $21 37d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 40d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 40d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 40d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 49d
AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records