Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65fc…d0b0 world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3
sports 17% $0
politics 13% $0
other 12% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.2% 57% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 30 -2.9% -12.2% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 66 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 3% -9.5%
all 85 -1.7% -11.1% 34% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage380d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 89¢ 87¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $31 +$3 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $32 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $117 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $44 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $26 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $35 −$1 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $71 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $233 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $22 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $36 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $34 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $31 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $32 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $32 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $14 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $19 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $11 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $11 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.05 · official $33.06 (match) · 329 history records