Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x65fe…911e crypto 309 markets active 1h ago coverage 1002d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$102 · open −$56
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%184W / 102L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$11
14 days+$73
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$31
tech 38% +$37
finance 9% +$21
world 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$51
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 42 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 49 +2.5% -7.3% 96% 2% -9.2%
all 286 -2.0% -11.3% 64% 40% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 40% -9.3%
10% -19.8% 34% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 26% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 21% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1002d coverage
Net worth$4,268
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses184 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions22
Markets (closed)286 / 309
History coverage1002d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $1,125 $1,119 −$6 (-1%)
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 99¢ 99¢ $950 $956 +$6 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $492 $482 −$10 (-2%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 93¢ 84¢ $429 $384 −$45 (-11%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 99¢ 100¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Is Earth flat? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,428 +$10 +1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,295 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? Jun 15 $260 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T? Jun 15 $1,164 +$1 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,192 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Jun 13 $417 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $617 +$5 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 185 ( Jun 12 $193 +$12 +6%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 195 ( Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $2,153 +$4 +0%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 180 ( Jun 12 $133 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $261 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,086 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $992 +$7 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $2,305 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $556 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7,916 +$22 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $360 $0 +0%
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 04 $221 +$2 +1%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 04 $318 +$6 +2%
Tea FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 04 $175 +$1 +0%
Tea FDV above $500M one day after launch Jun 04 $875 +$3 +0%
Tea FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 04 $1,144 +$2 +0%
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 04 $1,010 +$11 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $314 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 03 $250 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $129 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Human moon landing in 2026? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 23 $51 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $0 $0 +150%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "China" this week? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12PM ET Jan 26 $2 +$2 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $40 33m
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $152 42m
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $109 2h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $39 2h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $99 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $59 2h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $59 2h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $98 2h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $98 2h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $172 2h
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 2d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 3d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,268.38 · official $4,268.18 (match) · 761 history records