Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65ff…bbe2 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-8%) realized −$108 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$250
14 days−$230
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$87
other 8% −$117
world 2% −$26
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-70.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -72.7% -75.3% 14% 14% -29.5%
≤30d 60 -66.8% -70.0% 18% 18% -27.2%
≤90d 60 -66.8% -70.0% 18% 18% -27.2%
all 60 -66.8% -70.0% 18% 18% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.0% 18% -27.2%
10% -72.9% 18% -34.2%
15% -75.5% 15% -40.5%
20% -77.9% 15% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$12 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 49
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 56¢ $191 $183 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 +$33 +55%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $165 +$107 +65%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $140 +$83 +60%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$24 +79%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 +$30 +73%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$50 +98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$27 +114%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $193 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $61 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $165 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $51 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $140 31h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 31h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 31h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $71 45h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 45h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.87 · official $182.91 (match) · 124 history records