Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x65ff…50bb world 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1
other 23% −$1
sports 8% −$5
tech 5% $0
weather 3% +$1
politics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 11 -0.5% -9.9% 18% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 36% 0% -9.8%
all 27 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -11.0%
10% -24.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -31.3% 0% -27.3%
20% -38.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage459d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $29 −$1 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $15 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $24 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'The Brave' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 22 $8 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 22 $23 −$5 -24%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 24m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 24m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $28 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $7 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $22 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $29 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $13 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $17 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $30 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $29 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $23 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $7 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records