Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6600…d5fd sports 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,327 (+12%) realized +$1,367 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%122W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$461
7 days+$1,045
14 days+$1,126
30 days+$568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$982
other 25% +$214
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +48.6% +34.5% 79% 79% +44.3%
≤30d 149 +1.2% -8.4% 52% 52% -4.1%
≤90d 217 +6.2% -4.0% 54% 54% +0.5%
all 226 +4.4% -5.6% 54% 52% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 52% +0.5%
10% -14.6% 50% -9.2%
15% -22.9% 47% -17.9%
20% -30.4% 43% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$49 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$1,367
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses122 / 104
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions4
Markets (closed)226 / 230
History coverage122d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 41¢ $175 $144 −$32 (-18%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 46¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-8%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 37¢ 26¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $154 +$156 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $104 −$102 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 +$97 +93%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $104 +$123 +119%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $146 +$141 +96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $147 +$265 +180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $76 +$77 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $146 −$144 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $112 +$113 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $131 +$104 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $144 +$152 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $143 +$31 +22%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$35 +165%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$8 +24%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$5 +13%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$11 +31%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 −$31 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $37 +$34 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $29 +$34 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $32 +$68 +216%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $27 +$25 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $31 +$24 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $27 +$24 +86%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 07 $18 +$12 +65%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$34 +124%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $31 −$31 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $27 +$28 +101%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $32 −$31 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 +$24 +76%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $27 −$27 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $27 −$27 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $32 −$31 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $27 +$30 +109%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $18 +$16 +90%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $37 +$38 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $36 −$36 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $36 −$36 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $18 −$18 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $37 −$36 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $27 +$33 +119%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$20 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $18 +$18 +101%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $18 +$18 +97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $32 +$41 +129%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $9 +$6 +65%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$19 +62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $178 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $104 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $154 23h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 37h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $104 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 37h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $75 45h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $26 45h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 45h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $21 45h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $4 45h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $147 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $76 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $146 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $112 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $131 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $144 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $143 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 NORD 37¢ $21 5d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 80¢ $32 5d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 62¢ $32 5d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 76¢ $37 5d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 88¢ $37 5d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 51¢ $37 9d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 9d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 31¢ $32 10d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $27 10d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 50¢ $31 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.53 · official $216.28 (match) · 431 history records