Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6601…9e9f crypto 422 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1970 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,057 (-2%) realized −$1,053 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%222W / 651L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day1970.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1970 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 873 -50.4% -55.1% 25% 19% -13.9%
≤30d 873 -50.4% -55.1% 25% 19% -13.9%
≤90d 873 -50.4% -55.1% 25% 19% -13.9%
all 873 -50.4% -55.1% 25% 19% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1970.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.1% 19% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -59.4% 14% -22.2%
15% -63.3% 11% -29.7%
20% -66.9% 8% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$26 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses222 / 651
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)873 / 422
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$143
Trades / day1970.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 48¢ 44¢ $50 $47 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $29 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $60 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $28 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $116 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $12 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $17 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $50 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $41 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $43 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $18 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.15 · official $49.72 (match) · 3500 history records