Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6605…8e9f crypto 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$564 (-12%) realized −$562 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%110W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$205
14 days−$205
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$688
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -20.3% -27.9% 42% 36% -22.4%
≤30d 81 -19.7% -27.3% 41% 36% -23.4%
≤90d 180 -19.7% -27.4% 37% 34% -24.8%
all 293 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 36% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 36% -24.0%
10% -34.0% 34% -31.3%
15% -40.4% 32% -37.9%
20% -46.2% 29% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$562
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses110 / 183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)293 / 294
History coverage103d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 48¢ 44¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $29 −$12 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$53 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$22 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $93 −$44 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $93 +$56 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$18 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $59 −$52 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$23 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $42 +$57 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$38 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $74 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$27 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$14 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$14 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $32 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $49 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $27 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $17 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $39 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $28 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $37 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $9 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $83 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.20 · official $13.20 · 677 history records