Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x6606…09fa other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$224 (-57%) realized −$220 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 180d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$269
sports 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-73.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.9% -67.3% 25% 0% -47.1%
≤30d 4 -63.9% -67.3% 25% 0% -47.1%
≤90d 4 -63.9% -67.3% 25% 0% -47.1%
all 5 -71.1% -73.9% 20% 0% -81.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.9% 0% -81.4%
10% -76.4% 0% -83.2%
15% -78.7% 0% -84.8%
20% -80.8% 0% -86.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$69 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage180d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4 −$3 -84%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $53 −$44 -84%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $60 +$2 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 29 $223 −$223 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 11m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 12m
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 56m
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3¢ $0 56m
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? SELL Yes 27¢ $62 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 25¢ $60 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $4 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 2h
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $223 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.65 · official $44.65 (match) · 13 history records