Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
66 0x6607…5bd9 sports 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%139W / 107L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$393
14 days+$807
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$628
sports 28% +$4
tech 15% +$1,124
finance 9% −$158
other 7% −$478
crypto 4% +$75
weather 1% +$27
politics 1% +$70
economics 1% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 43% -3.2%
≤30d 89 -5.2% -14.3% 48% 40% -9.4%
≤90d 246 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 39% -9.5%
all 246 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 39% -9.5%
10% -22.0% 28% -18.1%
15% -29.5% 21% -26.0%
20% -36.4% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$75 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$2,399
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses139 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions9
Markets (closed)246 / 255
History coverage77d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 80¢ 90¢ $709 $796 +$87 (+12%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 95¢ $532 $567 +$36 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 78¢ 82¢ $312 $329 +$17 (+6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 70¢ 94¢ $210 $284 +$74 (+35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $177 $133 −$44 (-25%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 40¢ 29¢ $160 $117 −$43 (-27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $117 $96 −$21 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $68 $38 −$30 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $167 −$70 -42%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $171 +$129 +75%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $348 +$151 +43%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 17 $278 −$143 -51%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $104 +$196 +188%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $524 +$87 +17%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$86 -57%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $767 +$727 +95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $213 −$211 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $518 +$233 +45%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 15 $336 −$135 -40%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 15 $262 +$52 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $268 +$132 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $194 −$162 -84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $227 −$224 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $450 +$12 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $118 +$12 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $74 −$72 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $303 +$95 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $504 +$84 +17%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $164 −$162 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $316 +$76 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $112 +$15 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $216 −$10 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $216 −$216 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $787 −$592 -75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $698 +$670 +96%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $108 +$192 +178%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $101 −$56 -55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $432 +$24 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $232 +$239 +103%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $38 −$5 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $276 +$100 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $123 −$39 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $908 −$78 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $11 −$9 -79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $325 +$145 +45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $152 +$47 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $100 −$84 -84%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $133 −$83 -62%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $99 −$98 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $90 −$50 -56%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $120 +$64 +53%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $100 +$88 +88%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $129 +$71 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $97 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $210 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $9 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $158 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $164 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $171 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $499 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $43 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $70 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $68 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $139 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $69 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $139 15h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 16h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $93 16h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $30 16h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 16h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 78¢ $312 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 24h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $150 24h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $13 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $23 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,398.95 · official $2,398.95 (match) · 1336 history records