Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x6609…5c98
crypto · 27 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$18 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$103 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$103
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$13 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$8 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$9 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$19 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$15 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$26 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$103
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $17 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $17 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 46% -29.6%
≤30d 26 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 46% -29.6%
≤90d 26 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 46% -29.6%
all 26 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 46% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 46% -29.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 46% -36.3%
15% -34.5% 46% -42.5%
20% -40.9% 46% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.63 · official $19.63 (match) · 61 history records