Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x660c…7f7a crypto 890 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,553 (-7%) realized −$2,523 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%640W / 574L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day102.8pace
Fees−$374est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$681
crypto 9% −$190
other 7% −$1,323
weather 0% −$17
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 497 -68.2% -71.2% 23% 13% -43.7%
≤30d 1214 -26.9% -33.9% 53% 30% -22.7%
≤90d 1214 -26.9% -33.9% 53% 30% -22.7%
all 1214 -26.9% -33.9% 53% 30% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 30% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 18% -30.1%
15% -46.0% 12% -36.9%
20% -51.3% 9% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$2,523
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses640 / 574
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$374
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1214 / 890
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day102.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 62¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 75¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 9? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. Vitória SC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 6? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Mazatlán FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 10? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $9 15m
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 33m
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 75¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $6 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $2 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $2 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $15 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 61¢ $70 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $26 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ $2 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ $3 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $1 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 78¢ $1 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 78¢ $1 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 78¢ $1 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ $1 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 74¢ $3 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 75¢ $5 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.28 · official $18.28 (match) · 3500 history records