Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x660d…73d5 crypto 434 markets active 2h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$369 (-3%) realized −$369 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate88%381W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$23
14 days−$60
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$102
politics 7% −$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -0.6% -10.1% 94% 2% -10.0%
≤30d 432 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 24% -10.4%
≤90d 432 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 24% -10.4%
all 434 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 24% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 24% -13.0%
10% -19.3% 14% -21.4%
15% -27.1% 8% -29.0%
20% -34.2% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$31 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$369
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses381 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)434 / 434
History coverage407d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 434 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 900 history records