Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x660e…76cc other 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 926d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,212 (-11%) realized −$1,021 · open −$191
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%79W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$202
14 days+$236
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$133
sports 24% −$649
world 7% −$337
economics 4% −$131
politics 4% −$88
crypto 1% −$15
finance 0% −$35
culture 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +54.6% +39.9% 58% 58% +13.5%
≤30d 24 +43.0% +29.4% 58% 58% +8.2%
≤90d 135 -55.8% -60.0% 19% 18% -40.2%
all 245 -5.0% -14.1% 32% 31% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 31% -18.1%
10% -22.3% 29% -26.0%
15% -29.8% 27% -33.1%
20% -36.7% 24% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$28 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

926d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$1,021
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses79 / 166
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions15
Markets (closed)245 / 265
History coverage926d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ $91 $69 −$22 (-24%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $103 $52 −$52 (-50%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 41¢ $49 $41 −$8 (-16%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 29¢ $39 $23 −$16 (-41%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 42¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-26%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 22¢ 43¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+95%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Tuyo FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 +$25 +114%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: Jun 19 $51 +$115 +225%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$43 +146%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $29 +$47 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$70 +238%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$39 +79%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$45 +90%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$91 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$74 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 +$34 +365%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $38 +$19 +50%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$3 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 22 $41 −$10 -24%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $62 −$60 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $33 +$21 +65%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $112 −$41 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 01 $53 −$53 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $522 +$72 +14%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $285 −$127 -44%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Apr 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $175 +$98 +56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 17 $247 −$12 -5%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $27 30m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $22 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $54 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 30¢ $51 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $30 28h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $29 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 30h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY 18¢ $25 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $50 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $50 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $60 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $50 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $9 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay v BUY $10 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 20¢ $12 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026- BUY $10 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $30 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $12 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $48 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY $7 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $38 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.81 · official $393.78 (match) · 600 history records