Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
66 0x660f…ec30 sports 1034 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,601 (+12%) realized +$8,601 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate85%874W / 155L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,239
finance 20% −$411
crypto 12% −$827
other 6% +$228
politics 2% +$251
world 2% +$391
tech 0% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.1% -15.0% 76% 43% -7.7%
≤30d 73 +3.2% -6.6% 71% 37% +9.7%
≤90d 296 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 36% -5.5%
all 1029 -0.3% -9.8% 85% 25% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 25% -8.2%
10% -18.5% 14% -17.0%
15% -26.3% 10% -25.0%
20% -33.6% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$47 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$805
Realized+$8,601
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses874 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1029 / 1034
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1029 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $300 $359 +$59 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $300 $249 −$51 (-17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $78 $70 −$8 (-10%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $95 +$5 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $334 +$32 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $147 +$19 +13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $163 +$7 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $81 +$5 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $112 +$49 +44%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 +$54 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$22 +11%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $203 +$19 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $110 +$44 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 +$6 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $106 +$9 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $112 −$111 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $182 +$18 +10%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 −$77 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $182 +$5 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $113 +$131 +116%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $78 −$77 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $104 +$17 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $152 +$62 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $55 +$3 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $172 +$1,405 +818%
Will Derek Jeter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $33 +$7 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Jon Stewart attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $66 +$4 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $34 −$33 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 08 $22 +$3 +12%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $25 $0 +1%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 08 $30 +$3 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $229 +$108 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 05 $501 +$20 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $48 −$6 -12%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $100 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 98¢ $58 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $79 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $334 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $147 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $163 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $70 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $112 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $112 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $200 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $45 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $103 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $203 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $804.97 · official $806.07 (match) · 3500 history records