Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

66 0x6610…1ab9 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$50 (-29%) realized −$20 · open −$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+23.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+36.1%	+23.2%	50%	50%	+76.9%
≤30d	2	+36.1%	+23.2%	50%	50%	+76.9%
≤90d	2	+36.1%	+23.2%	50%	50%	+76.9%
all	2	+36.1%	+23.2%	50%	50%	+76.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.2%	50%	+76.9%
10%	+11.4%	50%	+60.0%
15%	+0.6%	50%	+44.5%
20%	-9.3%	50%	+30.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +96% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$20 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.39 per $1 lost it wins $4.39

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$69

Realized−$20

Unrealized−$30

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	52¢	36¢	$99	$69	−$30 (-30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	+$88	+172%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$139	35m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	36¢	$31	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	30h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	34h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.34 · official $69.34 (match) · 5 history records