Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6611…ceda crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$350 (-16%) realized −$256 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%25W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$328
tech 5% −$92
other 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -44.8% -50.0% 33% 33% -41.3%
≤30d 67 -48.7% -53.6% 16% 16% -55.4%
≤90d 101 -18.5% -26.3% 25% 25% -24.2%
all 101 -18.5% -26.3% 25% 25% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 25% -24.2%
10% -33.3% 25% -31.5%
15% -39.8% 23% -38.1%
20% -45.7% 23% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$17 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses25 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage36d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $98 $6 −$92 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $17 +$30 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 02 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 02 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$47 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 31 $15 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 31 $26 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 29 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 28 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 27 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 27 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 27 $17 +$28 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 26 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 26 $21 +$80 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 26 $10 +$64 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 25 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 25 $37 −$21 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 25 $37 +$45 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 25 $16 +$20 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 24 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 23 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 23 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 23 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 22 $9 −$8 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 11¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $55 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $22 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $19 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $15 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $15 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.08 · official $141.08 (match) · 170 history records