Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

66 0x6612…95e6 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)

Total PnL −$151 (-2%) realized −$151 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip

Net edge+52%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%2W / 7L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$351per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)+52.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+111.6%	+91.5%	20%	20%	+265.3%
≤30d	9	+68.1%	+52.1%	22%	22%	+207.8%
≤90d	9	+68.1%	+52.1%	22%	22%	+207.8%
all	9	+68.1%	+52.1%	22%	22%	+207.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+52.1%	22%	+207.8%
10%	+37.6%	22%	+178.4%
15%	+24.3%	22%	+151.5%
20%	+12.1%	22%	+126.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +240% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +68% · $-wt +240% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,926 vs −$111 · ×17.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.97 per $1 lost it wins $4.97

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$151

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses2 / 7

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions0

Markets (closed)9 / 19

History coverage27d

Avg bet$351

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 9 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	Jun 23	$360	+$3,445	+958%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 22	$143	−$143	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	Jun 22	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	Jun 22	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$234	−$234	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W	Jun 17	$4	−$1	-29%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$143	+$406	+284%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$46	−$45	-97%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta	Jun 01	$149	−$146	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals AND Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+	BUY	3¢	$5	1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals AND Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+	BUY	5¢	$100	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	3¢	$250	10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26	BUY	4¢	$200	16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26	BUY	8¢	$249	17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	16¢	$103	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	15¢	$1,025	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN	BUY	43¢	$2,542	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND	BUY	8¢	$103	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND	BUY	8¢	$103	3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+	BUY	5¢	$51	3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	4¢	$102	3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	SELL	0¢	$0	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	SELL	0¢	$0	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	46¢	$234	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	9¢	$103	4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	4¢	$103	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	9¢	$360	8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W	SELL	10¢	$3	8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W	BUY	13¢	$4	8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	30¢	$547	9d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	22¢	$92	9d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	36¢	$51	9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	6¢	$46	10d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta	BUY LOUD	8¢	$2	25d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta	BUY LOUD	20¢	$51	25d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta	BUY LOUD	22¢	$86	25d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta	BUY LOUD	28¢	$10	25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	17¢	$143	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $344.64 · 33 history records