Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
66 0x6615…3002 crypto 140 markets active 7h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,347 (+2%) realized +$1,247 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%80W / 58L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$654
14 days−$453
30 days−$984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$150
other 1% +$350
finance 0% −$27
sports 0% $0
tech 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 38% -18.1%
≤30d 47 +26.4% +14.3% 47% 28% -12.7%
≤90d 138 +18.8% +7.5% 58% 41% -9.3%
all 138 +18.8% +7.5% 58% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 41% -9.3%
10% -2.8% 26% -17.9%
15% -12.2% 19% -25.9%
20% -20.8% 16% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$104 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized+$1,247
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses80 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage81d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Down 54¢ 94¢ $108 $189 +$81 (+75%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Up 71¢ 80¢ $142 $161 +$19 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $145 +$55 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $1,100 −$550 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1,779 −$120 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1,300 +$45 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,664 −$133 -8%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $178 +$45 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,239 −$13 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,248 −$96 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $737 −$8 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $850 +$81 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 08 $705 −$215 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 07 $1,061 +$189 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $101 +$99 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $791 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $889 +$151 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $504 +$96 +19%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $800 −$160 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? Jun 02 $901 −$16 -2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $1,000 +$243 +24%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $76 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,302 −$98 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $880 −$200 -23%
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1,137 −$23 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1,097 +$13 +1%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $0 $0 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 26 $913 −$157 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $156 −$62 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 25 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 25 $88 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 25 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 25 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $1,195 +$107 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 22 $700 −$131 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $1,579 −$30 -2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $5 +$95 +1825%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $756 −$183 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $1,401 +$119 +8%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $71 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $1,156 +$3 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $27 +$4 +16%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $1,155 +$360 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? May 16 $867 −$228 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $981 +$19 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $57 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $55 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 71¢ $144 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 71¢ $145 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 80¢ $240 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 75¢ $225 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 70¢ $210 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 65¢ $130 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 61¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 50¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 50¢ $79 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 60¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 63¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 85¢ $172 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 65¢ $130 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 50¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 50¢ $108 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 50¢ $37 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 57¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 57¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 70¢ $140 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 65¢ $130 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 70¢ $70 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 49¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 48¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 80¢ $234 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 80¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 75¢ $225 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.00 · official $349.00 (match) · 1857 history records