Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x661c…695b other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$800 (-5%) realized −$212 · open −$588
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate72%31W / 12L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$756
other 49% −$596
crypto 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -12.5% -20.9% 72% 35% -14.4%
≤30d 43 -12.5% -20.9% 72% 35% -14.4%
≤90d 43 -12.5% -20.9% 72% 35% -14.4%
all 43 -12.5% -20.9% 72% 35% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 35% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 12% -22.6%
15% -35.3% 5% -30.0%
20% -41.7% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$172 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized−$212
Unrealized−$588
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses31 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions6
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 91¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 86¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? No 87¢ 100¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 81¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 88¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $201 +$19 +10%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $865 +$24 +3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$54 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $60 +$2 +3%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $200 +$15 +8%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $301 +$22 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $602 +$73 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $502 +$73 +15%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 16 $812 +$196 +24%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $542 +$107 +20%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,091 +$93 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,402 −$1,395 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,238 +$165 +13%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $205 −$203 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $245 −$42 -17%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $183 −$104 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $72 +$29 +41%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $421 +$4 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $344 −$294 -85%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $360 +$11 +3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $301 +$19 +6%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $461 +$55 +12%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $421 +$39 +9%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $422 −$2 -0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $390 +$33 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 41m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 43m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 81¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $220 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $512 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 87¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $201 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $301 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $403 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $663 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $138 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $12 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $62 13h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $320 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $10 14h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 14h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 97¢ $60 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $301 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $501 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.92 · official $611.92 (match) · 130 history records