Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
66 0x661d…6115 other 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16,605 (-18%) realized −$16,605 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,219per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$377
14 days−$16,957
30 days−$16,957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$16,957
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 88% 62% -8.4%
≤30d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 83% 56% -25.9%
≤90d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 83% 56% -25.9%
all 18 -4.4% -13.5% 83% 56% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 56% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 11% -33.0%
15% -29.4% 0% -39.4%
20% -36.3% 0% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$5,466) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$562 vs −$8,462 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5,219
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4,910 +$359 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,657 −$3,639 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7,098 +$1,536 +22%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,864 +$247 +13%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,635 +$227 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,415 +$220 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5,466 +$936 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,976 +$492 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,909 −$1,896 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,802 +$77 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,529 +$304 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $406 +$98 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,222 +$209 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $972 +$249 +26%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $888 +$85 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20,108 −$19,852 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17,082 +$3,156 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17,008 +$235 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $4,910 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 84¢ $3,657 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $8,634 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $7,098 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $1,864 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $1,863 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $1,635 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,635 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,415 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $5,466 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $5,468 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $4,976 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $1,909 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $1,879 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $1,802 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $1,529 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $406 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1,222 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $1,222 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $972 9d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $888 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 1¢ $256 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $20,108 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $17,082 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $17,242 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $17,008 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records