trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 19 | -33.3% | -39.7% | 11% | 11% | -4.4% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -36.1% | -42.1% | 10% | 10% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 29 | -42.9% | -48.4% | 7% | 7% | -36.1% |
| all | 30 | -42.2% | -47.7% | 7% | 7% | -35.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -47.7% | 7% | -35.9% |
| 10% | -52.7% | 7% | -42.1% |
| 15% | -57.3% | 7% | -47.7% |
| 20% | -61.4% | 7% | -52.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 57¢ | 73¢ | $110 | $142 | +$32 (+29%) |
| Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 36¢ | 43¢ | $100 | $119 | +$19 (+19%) |
| Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 40¢ | 48¢ | $96 | $114 | +$18 (+19%) |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 33¢ | 34¢ | $99 | $102 | +$3 (+3%) |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | No | 36¢ | 25¢ | $108 | $75 | −$33 (-31%) |
| Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 47¢ | 31¢ | $103 | $68 | −$35 (-34%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 68¢ | 60¢ | $68 | $60 | −$7 (-11%) |
| GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 32¢ | 14¢ | $96 | $42 | −$54 (-56%) |
| Croatia leading at halftime? | Yes | 52¢ | 34¢ | $52 | $34 | −$18 (-36%) |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 59¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $23 | −$77 (-77%) |
| GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 11¢ | 3¢ | $49 | $13 | −$36 (-73%) |
| Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $11 | $10 | −$1 (-9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? | Jun 23 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? | Jun 23 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? | Jun 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Norway leading at halftime? | Jun 23 | $32 | +$68 | +212% |
| Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Jun 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET | Jun 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? | Jun 23 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 | Jun 23 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? | Jun 23 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Jun 23 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? | Jun 23 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? | Jun 23 | $61 | −$61 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? | Jun 23 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 23 | $94 | −$94 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? | Jun 23 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 23 | $28 | −$27 | -96% |
| Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? | Jun 22 | $30 | −$19 | -63% |
| Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? | Jun 21 | $48 | −$45 | -94% |
| Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? | Jun 21 | $57 | +$463 | +809% |
| Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? | May 25 | $39 | −$34 | -88% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | May 21 | $5 | −$4 | -74% |
| Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? | May 04 | $99 | −$80 | -82% |
| Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? | May 04 | $45 | −$45 | -99% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Apr 21 | $152 | −$84 | -55% |
| MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Apr 21 | $60 | −$10 | -17% |
| USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? | Apr 21 | $90 | −$89 | -99% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Apr 19 | $61 | −$3 | -4% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Apr 10 | $50 | −$19 | -38% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Apr 09 | $71 | −$41 | -57% |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Mar 21 | $30 | −$6 | -20% |