Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x661d…4dc6
sports · 234 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$346,524 +95%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$160,674 · open −$11,379
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21,882
Realized−$160,674
Unrealized−$11,379
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses161 / 475
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$4,709
Open positions17
Markets (closed)636 / 234
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1,566
Trades / day220.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 17 History 636 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226,843
7 days−$202,083
14 days−$169,616
30 days−$160,674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 85¢ 61¢ $9,695 $6,940 −$2,755 (-28%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 77¢ 98¢ $2,735 $3,485 +$750 (+27%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $2,901 $3,320 +$419 (+14%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1,855 $1,857 +$2 (+0%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 26¢ 40¢ $1,129 $1,685 +$556 (+49%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 42¢ 20¢ $3,162 $1,508 −$1,654 (-52%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 67¢ 62¢ $894 $825 −$68 (-8%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 44¢ 20¢ $1,173 $545 −$628 (-54%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 21¢ 38¢ $231 $424 +$193 (+84%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $8,316 $370 −$7,945 (-96%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 49¢ 36¢ $359 $266 −$93 (-26%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 45¢ $181 $194 +$13 (+7%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Top Esports 26¢ 31¢ $135 $160 +$25 (+18%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $274 $151 −$123 (-45%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $140 $131 −$9 (-6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $134 $15 −$120 (-89%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 17¢ 7¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 BNK FearX Youth 22¢ 0¢ $239 $0 −$239 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Liquid 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs 3DMAX 19¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 10¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Geoff Neal 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Rockets 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Mandel Nallo 53¢ 0¢ $402 $0 −$402 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Jun 14 $239 −$156 -65%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $23 +$85 +363%
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $402 −$410 -102%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 14 $645 −$645 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $12 +$900 +7500%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 14 $501 −$470 -94%
Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Capitals vs. Flames Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $274 −$274 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $506 −$597 -118%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Lahore Qalandars Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $233 −$233 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 14 $70 +$78 +111%
Santiago: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Andrea Collarini Jun 14 $1,778 −$1,757 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 14 $94 −$74 -79%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Madrid Open: Shuai Zhang vs Eva Lys Jun 14 $510 −$510 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $117 −$98 -83%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jun 14 $359 −$360 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 14 $172 −$172 -100%
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 14 $947 −$909 -96%
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 14 $288 −$288 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Jun 14 $942 −$942 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - EMEA Masters Pla Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katie Boulter vs Eva Lys Jun 14 $152 +$17 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 14 $155 −$146 -95%
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Jun 14 $249 −$249 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Jun 14 $478 −$483 -101%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$153 +674%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 14 $86 −$107 -123%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $1,154 −$1,219 -106%
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Jun 14 $269 −$269 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 14 $801 −$1,327 -166%
Suns vs. Knicks Jun 14 $3,909 −$4,077 -104%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 14 $945 +$141 +15%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Jun 14 $812 −$1,114 -137%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 14 $195 −$195 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-7.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $352 −$349 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Jun 14 $586 −$514 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% +$108,281
other 14% +$11,608
politics 12% −$16,207
world 0% −$93
crypto 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 26¢ $16 9m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 24¢ $13 9m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 25¢ $25 9m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 26¢ $26 9m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 27¢ $27 9m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 28¢ $28 9m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 18¢ $2 19m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 19¢ $19 20m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $28 24m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 18¢ $18 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 19¢ $19 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 20¢ $20 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 21¢ $19 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $57 41m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $72 41m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $68 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $33 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 70¢ $40 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $71 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $72 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $62 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 63¢ $63 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 64¢ $64 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 65¢ $65 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 66¢ $22 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 67¢ $30 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 19¢ $19 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 20¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 22¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 20¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 543 -13.2% -21.4% 18% 17% -45.9%
≤30d 636 +3.7% -6.2% 25% 24% -34.4%
≤90d 636 +3.7% -6.2% 25% 24% -34.4%
all 636 +3.7% -6.2% 25% 24% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover220.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 24% -34.4%
10% -15.2% 21% -40.6%
15% ← realistic here -23.3% 18% -46.4%
20% -30.9% 16% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,881.67 · official $21,881.67 (match) · 3500 history records