Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x661e…c63e sports 547 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%178W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$152
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$88
crypto 28% −$448
other 14% +$77
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -10.4% -19.0% 29% 29% -19.4%
≤30d 84 -10.1% -18.7% 32% 32% -12.8%
≤90d 116 -19.8% -27.5% 29% 29% -14.7%
all 539 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 32% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 32% -16.9%
10% -26.9% 32% -24.8%
15% -34.0% 30% -32.1%
20% -40.5% 26% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses178 / 361
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)539 / 547
History coverage154d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $79 $76 −$3 (-4%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $43 $75 +$32 (+74%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 328 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$32 -63%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $49 −$24 -49%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 +$65 +117%
Iraq to win the second half? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Second half draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 −$27 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$17 +90%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 +$65 +237%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$5 -54%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$17 +171%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$55 +109%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $21 +$29 +137%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $5 +$28 +554%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $98 +$102 +105%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $95 −$94 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$58 +146%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -75%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $31 −$25 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $44 50m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $19 51m
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 14¢ $25 51m
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $49 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over $4 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 12¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $120 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $55 22h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes $6 23h
France vs. Iraq: Second half draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
France vs. Iraq: Second half draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 23h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $10 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 33h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 45h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 45h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 45h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde $2 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 28¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $34 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.13 · official $167.13 · 1105 history records