Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

66 0x6620…86d4 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$328 (+25%) realized +$335 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate23%3W / 10L

Drawdown91%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$703now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$611

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-47.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+196.3%	+168.1%	100%	100%	+202.8%
≤90d	13	-42.4%	-47.8%	23%	23%	+42.2%
all	13	-42.4%	-47.8%	23%	23%	+42.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.8%	23%	+42.2%
10%	-52.8%	23%	+28.6%
15%	-57.4%	23%	+16.2%
20%	-61.6%	23%	+4.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -42% · $-wt +57% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$205 vs −$29 · ×6.96 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage

Net worth$703

Realized+$335

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)23%

Wins / losses3 / 10

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions8

Markets (closed)13 / 21

History coverage57d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown91%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	12¢	$100	$133	+$33 (+33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$100	$109	+$9 (+9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$93	−$7 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$100	$92	−$8 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$100	$92	−$8 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$77	−$23 (-23%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	18¢	20¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$255	+$603	+236%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	May 30	$5	+$8	+156%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	May 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?	May 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	May 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	May 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?	May 05	$5	+$3	+57%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 05	$253	−$250	-99%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Apr 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Apr 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Apr 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Apr 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Apr 21	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	17d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	17d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	17d
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	31d
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	31d
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	31d
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY No	29¢	$5	31d
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	31d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	42d
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?	SELL No	78¢	$8	42d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	42d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	42d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	31¢	$102	46d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	32¢	$102	46d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	37¢	$100	51d
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY No	49¢	$5	57d
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	57d
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	57d
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	57d
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	BUY No	39¢	$5	57d
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	BUY No	23¢	$4	57d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	BUY No	16¢	$5	57d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.46 · official $703.46 (match) · 45 history records