Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6621…22cc crypto 556 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$217 (+2%) realized +$221 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%306W / 233L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$536
14 days+$443
30 days+$523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$395
other 15% +$175
crypto 10% −$133
weather 1% +$4
culture 0% −$11
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +4.5% -5.4% 60% 46% -4.1%
≤30d 110 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 48% -4.9%
≤90d 539 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 44% -6.2%
all 539 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 44% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 44% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 24% -15.2%
15% -27.3% 9% -23.4%
20% -34.5% 6% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses306 / 233
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions5
Markets (closed)539 / 556
History coverage58d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Will Panama concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 10¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will Chappell Roan perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $191 +$28 +15%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze Jun 19 $66 +$57 +87%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $380 +$7 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $162 +$129 +80%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 −$4 -3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 +$34 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $380 +$3 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $130 −$46 -35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 +$34 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/ Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $243 +$63 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$6 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$1 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 +$43 +71%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$6 +24%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $96 +$112 +117%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $242 +$105 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $142 +$77 +54%
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $18 +$5 +27%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $13 +$2 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $62 +$58 +93%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $118 −$5 -4%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $66 −$4 -7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 +$10 +30%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 +$2 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $75 −$1 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $86 +$28 +33%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $110 −$67 -61%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 +$12 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $113 −$9 -8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $244 −$1 -0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$28 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $221 +$36 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $164 +$38 +23%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$20 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $33 +$7 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $186 −$186 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $91 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $91 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 28¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Ger BUY 27¢ $51 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $219 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $91 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Switzer BUY 37¢ $92 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sp BUY 61¢ $95 18h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $387 19h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $380 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia BUY 56¢ $49 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze BUY 53¢ $66 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $148 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND BUY 49¢ $162 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $152 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both BUY 27¢ $102 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 38h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $383 40h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $380 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY 55¢ $162 43h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 45h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $151 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $36 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 53¢ $67 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $206 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $49 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.89 · official $673.87 · 1451 history records