Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 3 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Yes 31¢ $3,399 $126 −$3,273 (-96%)
Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 84¢ $281 $25 −$256 (-91%)
Will Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy? Yes 40¢ $404 $0 −$404 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y May 28 $1,140 +$4,165 +366%
Will Evan Mobley win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? May 28 $1,980 +$35 +2%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 27 $1,184 −$157 -13%
Will Alexandre Sarr lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA seas Mar 27 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Mar 27 $5,003 +$12 +0%
Will Benson Boone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $205 +$2 +1%
Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $166 +$5 +3%
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $719 +$3 +0%
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Feb 10 $187 +$18 +10%
Will Harry Styles perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $319 +$7 +2%
Will Ed Sheeran perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $718 +$27 +4%
Will Jay-Z perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $1,320 +$43 +3%
Will Metallica perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $1,665 +$31 +2%
Will Morgan Wallen perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $2,371 +$80 +3%
Will Miley Cyrus perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $5,604 +$506 +9%
Will Lane Kiffin be the next Giants Head Coach? Jan 21 $173 +$5 +3%
Will Bill Belichick be the next Giants Head Coach? Jan 21 $143 +$7 +5%
Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5 Jan 06 $16 +$15 +96%
Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5 Jan 06 $28 +$22 +82%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025? Jan 02 $505 +$7 +1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Dec 28 $2,430 +$188 +8%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 27 $1,023 +$2,386 +233%
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $13,738 +$217 +2%
Will AI be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 20 $8,739 +$1,011 +12%
Will Geoffrey Hinton be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 20 $898 +$12 +1%
Will Donald Trump be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 20 $21,293 +$993 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortli Dec 20 $3,172 +$155 +5%
Will Giorgia Meloni be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 19 $349 +$5 +1%
Will Demis Hassabis be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will Sundar Pichai be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be on the Time 2025 person of the year short Dec 19 $588 +$24 +4%
Will Sanae Takaichi be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 19 $1,213 +$14 +1%
Will Charlie Kirk be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 19 $1,623 +$170 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 19 $1,727 +$115 +7%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Dec 19 $26,662 −$2,237 -8%
Will Luke Combs perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Dec 19 $194 −$2 -1%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Dec 19 $404 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 18 $380 +$2 +0%
Will Mustafa Suleyman be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist Dec 16 $251 +$2 +1%
Will Javier Milei be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Vladimir Putin be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 16 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortl Dec 16 $392 +$33 +8%
Will Jerome Powell be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 16 $298 +$23 +8%
Will Elon Musk be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 16 $138 +$4 +3%
Will Bad Bunny be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 16 $430 +$15 +4%
Will Pope Leo XIV be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 16 $20,699 +$1,136 +6%
Will Olivia Rodrigo perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Dec 15 $1,911 −$33 -2%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Dec 15 $934 −$16 -2%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Dec 15 $9,849 −$1,204 -12%
Will Justin Bieber perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Dec 15 $774 −$22 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$1,717
sports 22% +$119,427
tech 12% +$5,549
crypto 7% +$6,365
politics 7% +$9,245
economics 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 94¢ $605 73d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $3,300 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $50 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $50 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $259 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $10 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $9 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $99 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $100 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $18 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $18 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $28 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $18 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $18 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $5 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $18 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $17 76d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 92¢ $582 76d
Will Evan Mobley win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? SELL No 100¢ $1,946 76d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 27¢ $125 76d
Will Alexandre Sarr lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA seas SELL Yes $1 76d
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? SELL Yes $34 120d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y SELL Yes 63¢ $98 120d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 83¢ $902 142d
Will Evan Mobley win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? SELL No 97¢ $69 142d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y BUY Yes 18¢ $194 154d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y BUY Yes 18¢ $76 155d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y BUY Yes 18¢ $90 155d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y BUY Yes 18¢ $90 155d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y BUY Yes 18¢ $90 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +183.6% +156.6% 100% 50% +112.3%
≤90d 5 +51.7% +37.2% 60% 20% +29.7%
all 115 +1.1% -8.5% 69% 23% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 23% +14.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 15% +3.4%
15% -25.3% 10% -6.6%
20% -32.6% 8% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.03 · official $188.03 (match) · 2408 history records