Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6625…4fed crypto 407 markets active 2h ago coverage 748d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate50%199W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$61
other 6% $0
tech 2% −$17
finance 2% $0
world 1% $0
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.9% -7.8% 22% 6% -9.4%
≤30d 52 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 2% -11.3%
≤90d 134 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 5% -10.6%
all 400 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 14% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 14% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 8% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 4% -26.6%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

748d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses199 / 201
Open positions7
Markets (closed)400 / 407
History coverage748d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Jun 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
James Norton announced as next James Bond? Jun 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 24 $40 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $90 −$6 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $92 −$3 -4%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $97 −$1 -1%
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $79 −$17 -21%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 96¢ $2 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Theo James announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 1h
James Norton announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 18h
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY No 97¢ $1 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 88¢ $1 18h
Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 88¢ $1 18h
James Norton announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $2 18h
Theo James announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $1 18h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 99¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 99¢ $20 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL No 87¢ $1 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 5d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.82 · official $96.82 (match) · 985 history records