Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6625…fef4 sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,951 (+21%) realized +$5,900 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate81%71W / 17L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$269est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,196
7 days+$4,030
14 days+$4,613
30 days+$4,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$3,985
other 10% +$661
crypto 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +8.0% -2.3% 80% 33% +8.0%
≤30d 88 +9.4% -1.1% 81% 35% +7.3%
≤90d 88 +9.4% -1.1% 81% 35% +7.3%
all 88 +9.4% -1.1% 81% 35% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 35% +7.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 25% -3.0%
15% -19.2% 18% -12.4%
20% -27.1% 16% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$197 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,592
Realized+$5,900
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses71 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$269
Open positions5
Markets (closed)88 / 93
History coverage9d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 61¢ 62¢ $1,243 $1,263 +$20 (+2%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 92¢ 100¢ $550 $597 +$47 (+8%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 67¢ 100¢ $300 $447 +$147 (+49%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 91¢ 100¢ $260 $286 +$26 (+10%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 17¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1,272 −$1,072 -84%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $343 +$186 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $195 +$5 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,190 +$810 +68%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $1,102 −$11 -1%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $425 −$425 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $74 +$74 +100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $199 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $240 −$232 -97%
Ryan Vilade: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $931 +$89 +10%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $345 −$340 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $84 −$42 -50%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $311 +$3 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $176 +$24 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $355 −$310 -87%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $860 +$139 +16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,906 +$3,178 +167%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $87 +$65 +75%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $242 +$8 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $243 +$63 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $412 +$103 +25%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $262 +$30 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$2 -4%
First Blood in Game 3? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +91%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $837 +$662 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $417 −$192 -46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $878 +$601 +68%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $655 +$345 +53%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $162 +$38 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 −$14 -18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $116 +$8 +7%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $904 +$104 +12%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $460 +$29 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 +$50 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $89 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $245 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$33 +166%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$47 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $606 +$22 +4%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $150 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $53 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $361 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $679 3m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 1¢ $11 7m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 15¢ $3 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 15¢ $147 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 15¢ $39 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $108 20m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $5 20m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $37 20m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $250 21m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $33 33m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $10 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $3 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $4 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $4 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $86 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $168 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $19 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $325 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $201 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $18 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 3¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 3¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 3¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 3¢ $7 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $8 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,592.29 · official $2,612.82 (match) · 405 history records