Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6626…d25a crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$315 (+2%) realized +$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%40W / 2L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$5
crypto 23% +$58
sports 15% +$249
world 2% +$1
other 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 42 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 7% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -7.3%
10% -17.7% 5% -16.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -24.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$32 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.9 per $1 lost it wins $5.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses40 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage588d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 22 $23 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 14? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 27 $32 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $820 end of February? Mar 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Feb 27 $45 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? Feb 10 $53 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $44 $0 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $51 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 06 $42 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 06 $52 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 12 $53 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 29 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 12 $87 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 12 $85 +$2 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jun 29 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 15 $76 +$8 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 22 $72 +$4 +6%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 30 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Mar 26 $68 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 24 $66 +$2 +3%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Feb 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Feb 11 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 16 $7,328 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 09 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $999 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Nov 29 $1,039 +$22 +2%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Nov 29 $958 +$81 +8%
Clippers vs. Celtics Nov 27 $79 +$21 +27%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $652 +$206 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $23 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 16d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $23 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $23 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 69d
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $30 69d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $34 69d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 69d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 87d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $30 87d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $32 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $30 105d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 98¢ $32 105d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 105d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 115d
Will Meta (META) close above $820 end of February? BUY No 100¢ $24 115d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? SELL No 100¢ $45 115d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $51 132d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $30 132d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $15 132d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $20 168d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 99¢ $22 168d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $53 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $44 197d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $51 197d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $42 197d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $42 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.89 · official $94.89 (match) · 153 history records