Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
66 0x662a…77b7 other 315 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,796 (-3%) realized −$7,167 · open −$1,629
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%111W / 177L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$823per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days+$358
14 days+$1,433
30 days+$1,312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$4,566
world 38% +$9,054
sports 9% −$8,187
politics 6% −$3,211
crypto 3% −$423
finance 2% +$2,042
tech 1% −$206
culture 0% −$78
weather 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -30.6% -37.2% 22% 22% -6.7%
≤30d 67 -34.4% -40.7% 24% 24% -4.9%
≤90d 109 -21.9% -29.3% 34% 31% -6.7%
all 288 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 36% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 36% -10.9%
10% -34.0% 32% -19.4%
15% -40.3% 27% -27.2%
20% -46.2% 23% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$650) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$709 vs −$467 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$2,476
Realized−$7,167
Unrealized−$1,629
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses111 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions10
Markets (closed)288 / 315
History coverage584d
Avg bet$823
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $946 $1,009 +$63 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $753 $480 −$273 (-36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $483 $405 −$78 (-16%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $239 $223 −$16 (-7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 25¢ $244 $154 −$90 (-37%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $732 $126 −$606 (-83%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 61¢ 7¢ $250 $28 −$222 (-89%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $106 $27 −$80 (-75%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $152 $25 −$127 (-84%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $458 −$450 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $92 −$90 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $501 −$34 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $368 +$1,033 +281%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $113 −$110 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $133 +$950 +712%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $255 +$403 +158%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $144 −$140 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $658 +$482 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $385 +$249 +65%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $216 −$210 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $134 −$130 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $714 +$1,320 +185%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $486 +$342 +70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $147 −$143 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $153 −$149 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $659 −$650 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $257 −$250 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $138 −$135 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $133 −$130 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $379 +$1,669 +440%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $221 +$79 +36%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $661 −$650 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $810 −$800 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $599 +$476 +79%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $777 −$763 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,072 +$3,387 +110%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2,140 −$1,594 -74%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $500 −$306 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 61¢ $253 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND BUY 11¢ $51 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? AND BUY 4¢ $48 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 21¢ $154 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $93 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score BUY 5¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score BUY 5¢ $21 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score BUY 5¢ $21 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 40¢ $204 9h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arg BUY 6¢ $87 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $458 27h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $92 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 31h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgiu BUY 13¢ $103 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND BUY 25¢ $153 34h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 4¢ $123 37h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $467 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY 24¢ $102 46h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Jap BUY 4¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $113 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Jap BUY 3¢ $134 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Jap BUY 4¢ $139 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $255 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $82 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $144 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,475.81 · official $2,800.55 · 1568 history records