Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x662b…df11 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$20
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$41
sports 26% −$26
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$4
economics 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage136d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $323 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $266 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $343 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $518 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $626 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $304 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 02 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $579 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $150 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $124 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 44m
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 3h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $62 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 12h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 15h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 22h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 23h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 26h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 28h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 29h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 30h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 32h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 33h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 35h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 37h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 41h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 42h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 47h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1399 history records