Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x662b…73a8 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,043 (+8%) realized +$616 · open +$427
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$2,039
other 45% −$68
world 4% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +16.7% +5.5% 24% 24% -2.0%
≤30d 37 +16.7% +5.5% 24% 24% -2.0%
≤90d 37 +16.7% +5.5% 24% 24% -2.0%
all 37 +16.7% +5.5% 24% 24% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 24% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 24% -11.4%
15% -13.8% 24% -19.9%
20% -22.2% 24% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +32% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$658 vs −$174 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,527
Realized+$616
Unrealized+$427
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 86¢ $1,000 $1,449 +$449 (+45%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$27 -53%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 −$359 -71%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,316 +$855 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $711 −$700 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $307 −$234 -76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $913 −$264 -29%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $305 −$54 -18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $815 −$554 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $205 −$163 -79%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $103 +$609 +594%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $407 +$555 +136%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,214 +$753 +62%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $460 −$93 -20%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $305 +$307 +101%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$5 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 −$50 -5%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$6 -5%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 16 $203 +$166 +82%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $507 −$500 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $103 +$806 +785%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $408 +$710 +174%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $356 −$53 -15%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $205 +$1,163 +567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 35m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $24 35m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $148 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $95 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $507 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,171 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 5¢ $73 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $212 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 32¢ $102 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $306 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $252 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 61¢ $437 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $261 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 17¢ $93 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 3¢ $42 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $505 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,527.28 · official $1,499.63 · 94 history records