Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x662d…0fe0 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2
world 25% −$1
politics 13% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.7% -11.0% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -4.2% -13.4% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -4.2% -13.4% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 44 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage446d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 +$2 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $14 −$2 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $4 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 07 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 06 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $7 $0 -5%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 27 $7 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 24 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 14 $8 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $8 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $33 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $11 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $28 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 38h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $22 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $4 26d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 184d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records