Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
66 0x662e…4b20 weather 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,789 (+21%) realized +$6,644 · open +$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%96W / 44L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$647
7 days+$886
14 days+$2,248
30 days+$2,834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$6,070
other 2% +$125
sports 0% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.4% +8.0% 86% 71% +8.0%
≤30d 37 +33.9% +21.1% 81% 70% +16.7%
≤90d 125 +36.1% +23.1% 67% 57% +7.6%
all 140 +42.8% +29.2% 69% 59% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.2% 59% +9.4%
10% +16.8% 46% -1.1%
15% +5.5% 39% -10.7%
20% -4.8% 31% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$105 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,713
Realized+$6,644
Unrealized+$145
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses96 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)140 / 144
History coverage97d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? No 94¢ 95¢ $523 $529 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? No 90¢ 100¢ $442 $493 +$51 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? No 76¢ 76¢ $382 $380 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? No 71¢ 100¢ $220 $311 +$91 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 22 $1,068 +$29 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $360 +$113 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 22 $67 +$109 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 22 $106 +$19 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $623 +$82 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 22 $350 +$234 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 22 $960 +$40 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 22 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $15 −$10 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $115 +$60 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $184 +$70 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $528 +$134 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $109 +$151 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$37 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $367 +$189 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $94 −$90 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$26 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 11 $121 +$27 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 11 $143 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 11 $445 +$55 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 11 $144 +$389 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 11 $420 +$180 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1,283 +$418 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $112 +$28 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $143 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 07 $255 +$245 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $85 −$73 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $163 −$106 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 30 $2 +$2 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17? May 30 $55 +$24 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 30 $324 −$21 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17? May 30 $210 +$91 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18? May 30 $330 +$170 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $101 +$159 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $270 +$90 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15? May 18 $58 +$41 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? May 18 $180 +$119 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? May 18 $22 +$127 +568%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? May 18 $93 +$327 +352%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? May 18 $597 +$255 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16? May 18 $289 +$23 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? May 17 $26 +$82 +315%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14? May 16 $846 +$239 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $33 +$15 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12? May 15 $2 +$8 +465%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 13? May 15 $45 +$22 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12? May 15 $54 +$22 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13? May 15 $1,599 +$312 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $387 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $159 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $366 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 67¢ $69 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 71¢ $174 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 74¢ $73 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 76¢ $47 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $444 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 71¢ $216 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 70¢ $286 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $106 36h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $134 36h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $195 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $4 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $106 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $4 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $7 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $98 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 68¢ $153 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $47 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $8 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,712.99 · official $1,710.49 (match) · 1287 history records