Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

66 0x662e…9f00 politics 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR15%break-even

Win rate15%2W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,332per market

Trades / day42.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +15%

net ROI/market (all)-12.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-3.7%	-12.9%	15%	15%	-9.6%
≤30d	13	-3.7%	-12.9%	15%	15%	-9.6%
≤90d	13	-3.7%	-12.9%	15%	15%	-9.6%
all	13	-3.7%	-12.9%	15%	15%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover42.9 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-12.9%	15%	-9.6%
10%	-21.2%	15%	-18.3%
15% ← realistic here	-28.8%	15%	-26.2%
20%	-35.8%	15%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -8% → late -0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.06 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)15%

Wins / losses2 / 11

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)13 / 16

History coverage4d

Avg bet$1,332

Trades / day42.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	48¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	Jun 23	$12,655	−$14	-0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2	Jun 23	$1,600	−$2	-0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?	Jun 23	$100	$0	-0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?	Jun 23	$4,847	−$5	-0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?	Jun 23	$300	−$1	-0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?	Jun 23	$665	−$1	-0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Jun 23	$375	$0	-0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$1	+$1	+60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$1	+$1	+93%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect	Jun 20	$650	−$1	-0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 20	$110	$0	-0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$283	48m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$283	49m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$284	49m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$284	49m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$285	49m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$285	49m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$285	49m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$285	49m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$285	49m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$285	50m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$286	50m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$286	50m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$287	50m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$287	50m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$288	50m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$288	50m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$288	50m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$288	51m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$289	51m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$289	51m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$289	51m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$289	51m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$290	51m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$290	51m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$290	52m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$290	52m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$290	52m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$290	52m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	SELL No	100¢	$290	52m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in	BUY No	100¢	$290	52m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $2.56 (match) · 167 history records