Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x662e…3afc sports 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$303 (+1%) realized +$300 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%179W / 13L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$680
7 days−$350
14 days−$368
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$271
other 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$19
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 10% -10.9%
≤30d 184 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 8% -10.2%
≤90d 192 -1.2% -10.7% 93% 8% -10.1%
all 192 -1.2% -10.7% 93% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 8% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$113 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized+$300
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses179 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage33d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Svyatoslav Gulin 99¢ 100¢ $609 $612 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $578 +$22 +4%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $700 −$490 -70%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $373 +$4 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $489 +$10 +2%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $444 −$206 -46%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $192 −$192 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $905 +$31 +3%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $22 +$3 +16%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $1,213 +$25 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $780 +$20 +2%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $545 +$5 +1%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $774 +$25 +3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $1,287 +$13 +1%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 14 $117 +$15 +13%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $76 +$4 +5%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $570 +$13 +2%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Jangjun Kim Jun 14 $408 +$6 +1%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Manon Leonard Jun 13 $285 +$15 +5%
ITF Kayseri: Haydar Cem Gokpinar vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 13 $123 +$2 +2%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $1,334 +$25 +2%
ITF Tokyo: Funa Kozaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 13 $124 +$12 +9%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Sohyun Park Jun 13 $1,196 +$15 +1%
ITF Maanshan: Thanapet Chanta vs James Van Herzeele Jun 10 $32 $0 +1%
ITF Los Angeles: Jack Satterfield vs Spencer Johnson Jun 10 $236 +$19 +8%
ITF Cuiaba: Catarina Melleiro vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano Jun 10 $112 +$13 +12%
ITF Los Angeles: Lucca Liu vs Vignesh Gogineni Jun 10 $133 +$17 +13%
ITF Messina: Gabriele Piraino vs Daniele Rapagnetta Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $96 +$4 +4%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Jessica Pieri Jun 09 $176 +$10 +6%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $340 +$10 +3%
Lyon: Matteo Martineau vs Mickael Kaouk Jun 09 $460 +$5 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $498 +$10 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $495 +$4 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $46 +$4 +8%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Oliver Okonkwo Jun 09 $352 +$3 +1%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $490 +$10 +2%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $348 +$5 +2%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Tim Handel vs Daniel Siniakov Jun 09 $37 $0 +1%
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea Jun 09 $458 +$4 +1%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 09 $187 +$1 +0%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $180 +$15 +9%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $1,403 +$12 +1%
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Yuto Oki Jun 09 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 99¢ $609 19m
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 97¢ $388 1h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 96¢ $96 1h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 93¢ $93 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 10¢ $39 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 43¢ $171 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 89¢ $499 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $499 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 80¢ $201 2h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ $368 2h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ $5 2h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 96¢ $192 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 91¢ $91 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 70¢ $71 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 13¢ $38 3h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 94¢ $283 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova BUY Viktoria Hruncakova 99¢ $4 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova BUY Viktoria Hruncakova 99¢ $1 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova BUY Viktoria Hruncakova 98¢ $20 4h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 99¢ $22 4h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 99¢ $176 4h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 97¢ $291 4h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 99¢ $729 5h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 99¢ $391 5h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 99¢ $5 5h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 99¢ $99 5h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 88¢ $177 6h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 99¢ $929 7h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 97¢ $97 7h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 95¢ $95 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.92 · official $611.92 (match) · 736 history records