Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x662f…c8d0 politics 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,502 (+1%) realized +$1,502 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%38W / 144L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,302per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days−$45
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$143
other 34% +$114
sports 11% +$1,576
culture 5% −$17
economics 3% −$7
world 2% −$41
tech 1% −$4
crypto 0% −$6
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 51 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -2.3% -11.6% 5% 4% -9.4%
all 182 -1.4% -10.8% 21% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 10% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 10% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 7% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,852) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$6 · ×9.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized+$1,502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses38 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,302
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $147 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2,009 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $1,837 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $3,357 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $4,044 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $1,674 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $368 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,836 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,935 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,175 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $2,859 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,805 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,173 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,497 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,537 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,656 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,265 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $828 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $2,161 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $4,454 −$7 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $80 +$77 +97%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,702 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,212 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $552 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $65 +$52 +79%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $223 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $387 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $275 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $5,848 −$6 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $705 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,438 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $308 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $2,169 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $349 4h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $293 10h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $294 12h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $311 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $311 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $345 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $346 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $221 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $147 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $257 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $257 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $296 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $296 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $368 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $368 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $221 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $221 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $340 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $340 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $768 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $769 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $756 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $693 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $694 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $789 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.24 · official $281.24 (match) · 641 history records