Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6632…5ac6 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$304 (-17%) realized −$306 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 42% -25.7%
≤30d 31 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 42% -25.7%
≤90d 31 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 42% -25.7%
all 31 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 42% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 42% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 42% -32.8%
15% -42.1% 42% -39.3%
20% -47.7% 39% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$53 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 51¢ 52¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$50 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $159 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$73 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$57 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $108 +$142 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $158 +$97 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$67 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $53 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $53 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.03 · official $51.07 · 85 history records