Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6634…c7f2 weather 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate64%34W / 19L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% +$6
tech 33% −$1
other 12% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 +0.0% -9.5% 52% 0% -9.5%
all 53 +0.1% -9.5% 64% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses34 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage112d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $281 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 31 $427 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $132 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $77 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $130 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25? Apr 27 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 19? Apr 27 $113 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $132 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 11? Apr 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8? Apr 10 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 3? Apr 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 7? Apr 08 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 5? Apr 08 $153 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on March 30? Apr 02 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 29? Mar 30 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 28? Mar 29 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 26? Mar 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 25 Mar 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 20 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 18 Mar 19 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 17 Mar 19 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 16 Mar 18 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 16 Mar 18 $161 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 14 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 11? Mar 12 $275 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10? Mar 10 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8? Mar 10 $274 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 08 $274 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6? Mar 07 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 06 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 4? Mar 06 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 3? Mar 04 $273 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 3? Mar 04 $272 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 2? Mar 03 $272 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $189 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $189 7d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 8d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 10d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $171 12d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $171 13d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $162 14d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $162 16d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $178 18d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $179 19d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $132 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $132 21d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $162 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $162 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $112 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $112 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $132 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $133 28d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $132 30d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $132 33d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $137 34d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $137 48d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $102 48d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $102 50d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 52d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 53d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.53 · official $139.53 (match) · 123 history records