Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6639…25cb crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,648 (-14%) realized −$2,649 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$997per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$2,657
crypto 47% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 17 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 0% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -24.2%
10% -19.3% 0% -31.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -38.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$914) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2,657 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$2,561
Realized−$2,649
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage620d
Avg bet$997
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,346 $1,347 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,214 $1,215 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $914 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1,644 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 22 $1,038 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $1,517 +$2 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $37 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $140 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 20 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $586 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,018 −$2,657 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,214 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,346 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,644 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $914 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,038 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,517 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $87 398d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $140 398d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 398d
Will Solana reach $300 in May? BUY No 99¢ $37 398d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 398d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 435d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? BUY No 100¢ $64 435d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 435d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $49 435d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 435d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $66 435d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $432 474d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $73 474d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $44 474d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $37 474d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 34¢ $7,361 602d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 46¢ $10,018 619d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,561.28 · official $2,561.28 (match) · 39 history records