Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x663b…8dfa crypto 1616 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$312 (-1%) realized −$312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%1509W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day57.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$26
14 days−$59
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$272
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 21% -15.6%
≤30d 812 -4.2% -13.4% 87% 6% -11.2%
≤90d 1616 -1.2% -10.6% 93% 3% -10.6%
all 1616 -1.2% -10.6% 93% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 3% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 2% -19.2%
15% -27.0% 1% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1509 / 107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1616 / 1616
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day57.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1616 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$31 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records