Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
66 0x663c…194c other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$43
other 37% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.2% -34.2% 57% 29% -5.5%
≤30d 9 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 22% -5.7%
≤90d 9 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 22% -5.7%
all 9 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 22% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 22% -5.7%
10% -36.6% 0% -14.7%
15% -42.7% 0% -22.9%
20% -48.4% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage17d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $122 +$24 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $80 +$14 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$17 -34%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 04 $4 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $106 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $101 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $40 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $55 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $50 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 76¢ $62 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 74¢ $60 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 78¢ $59 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $47 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $47 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $40 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $47 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $40 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $33 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 10h
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 46¢ $3 16d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 48¢ $3 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records