Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6641…fccd other 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,331 (+6%) realized +$5,331 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate68%107W / 51L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$549est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$67
14 days+$224
30 days+$3,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$2,582
sports 41% +$744
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 60% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 109 +82.9% +65.5% 72% 28% -5.6%
≤90d 158 +57.3% +42.3% 68% 28% -6.3%
all 158 +57.3% +42.3% 68% 28% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.3% 28% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here +28.7% 22% -15.2%
15% +16.2% 14% -23.4%
20% +4.8% 10% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$797) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late +110% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$90 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5,331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses107 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$549
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage56d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $1,457 −$38 -3%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $2,977 +$87 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,401 −$116 -8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $496 −$287 -58%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $354 +$347 +98%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $363 +$303 +84%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $989 +$75 +8%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,256 −$76 -6%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $300 +$24 +8%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $973 +$72 +7%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $681 +$168 +25%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $797 −$32 -4%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $285 +$5 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,491 +$21 +1%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $179 +$32 +18%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $747 −$372 -50%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $96 +$4 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $188 −$16 -8%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $824 −$102 -12%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $603 +$107 +18%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,888 +$15 +1%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $732 +$33 +4%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $980 +$58 +6%
AS FAR vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,007 +$43 +4%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,901 −$27 -1%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $102 +$8 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $506 −$124 -24%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,120 −$607 -54%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2,098 −$44 -2%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +2%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $75 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $47 +$126 +267%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,627 +$88 +5%
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $2,675 +$228 +8%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $441 +$18 +4%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $465 −$49 -11%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $90 +$8 +9%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $300 +$27 +9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $850 +$329 +39%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $62 +$2 +4%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $1,504 −$583 -39%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $369 −$86 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 39¢ $124 3m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 40¢ $11 3m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 39¢ $31 4m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $198 5m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 39¢ $129 5m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 39¢ $41 5m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 35¢ $158 6m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 37¢ $160 9m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 37¢ $416 9m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 38¢ $611 9m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 35¢ $34 10m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 32¢ $33 10m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 31¢ $11 10m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 27¢ $10 10m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $262 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $1 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $16 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $1 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $16 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $15 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $2 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $14 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 66¢ $1 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ $64 16m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ $54 16m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $431 16m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 39¢ $2 19m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Arthur Fery 40¢ $16 20m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 37¢ $18 20m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic $11 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.00 (match) · 1408 history records